Do stars matter? Indiana football destroys ‘talent metric’ narrative

Do stars matter? Indiana football’s unprecedented national championship win over Miami on Jan. 19 certainly sparks the question.

The Hoosiers (16-0) were doubted all season, as their roster lacked high-end high school talent and was instead built by transfers, several of whom came from non-Power Four program James Madison, second-year coach Curt Cignetti’s former team. Indiana had zero former five-star recruits on its team and lacked obvious high-end NFL talent outside of eventual Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza.

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Indiana’s win shows a clear shift in the direction of college football: The sport isn’t just for traditional powers anymore, especially with how rosters are built.

‘I think that’s called a paradigm shift,’ Cignetti told reporters after Indiana’s 27-21 win. ‘People can cling to an old way of thinking, categorizing teams as this or that or conferences as this or that. Or they can adjust to the new world. The shift of the power balance and the way college football is today.’

The Hoosiers have embraced their roles in the current landscape. Mendoza even commonly referred to the team as a bunch of ‘misfits.’

‘Are there eight draft picks on this team? Probably not,’ Cignetti said. ‘But the whole was better than the sum of its parts.’

Indeed, Indiana’s roster is — on paper — the least talented to ever win a national championship. To put the Hoosiers’ magical season into perspective, here’s how Indiana compares to other national champions in terms of high school recruiting metrics:

Indiana football talent metric in 2025

When Michigan won the national championship in 2023, it became the first team to overcome not having the most elite-of-elite rosters in college football to reach the promise land. That roster ranked as the 14th-best in terms of recruiting talent that season, according to 247Sports’ Composite ratings.

Indiana absolutely blew that metric out of the water in 2025. The Hoosiers ranked 72nd in college football in talent metric this season, which isn’t even in the top half of the sport.

Heading into the season, the lowest blue-chip ratio of a CFP national championship team was 52%, meaning the roster was comprised of over half 4- and 5-star players. Indiana destroyed that trend, too, as its roster had a blue-chip ratio of around 8%.

Indiana’s talent metric ranked below a few notable teams, too. Oklahoma State was ranked No. 49 in the talent metric, despite finishing the season with a 1-11 record. Its only win was against FCS UT Martin. Boston College was also ranked ahead of the Hoosiers, coming in at No. 69 despite going 2-10 on the year.

Purdue, Indiana’s fiercest rival, was No. 54 in talent metric. All Indiana did was defeat the Boilermakers 56-3 in the final week of the regular season. The Hoosiers had zero 5-star recruits and only seven 4-star recruits on their roster for the 2025 season, along with 55 3-star players.

Granted, that doesn’t mean Indiana’s roster wasn’t talented: It clearly held its own and more against some of college football’s top teams. The Hoosiers defeated powerhouse programs Ohio State, Alabama, Oregon and Miami in their final four games, with their wins over Alabama and Oregon being more than 30 points.

Cignetti has said in the past he doesn’t pay attention to stars and rankings, rather focusing on production over projection, along with development. It’s clear that methodology paid off, along with bringing in the correct transfers.

‘I’ve never been into stars, just never have been,’ said Cignetti, the former recruiting coordinator at Alabama under Nick Saban. ‘Was a recruiting coordinator for about 20 years, as well as a coach. I think the evaluation is extremely important and there’s a lot of good players out there.

‘You find a guy that’s got the right stuff, good habits and wants to be great, and you develop them. That’s part of the job of the program.’

Talent metric for each national championship winner of CFP era

Here’s a look at the talent metric for each national champion since 2015, when 247Sports’ Composite ratings started tracking the metric:

• 2025: Indiana (72nd)
• 2024: Ohio State (3rd)
• 2023: Michigan (14th)
• 2022: Georgia (2nd)
• 2021: Georgia (2nd)
• 2020: Alabama (2nd)
• 2019: LSU (5th)
• 2018: Clemson (6th)
• 2017: Alabama (1st)
• 2016: Clemson (9th)
• 2015: Alabama (1st)

Indiana football recruiting class for 2026

• High school class: No. 34 class nationally (seven four-stars and 15 three-stars)
• Transfer portal class: No. 7 class nationally (five four-stars and nine three-stars)